Notebook
13
InfrastructureModelled

Sheikh Highland Agriculture

80,000 ha AEZ-A/B · USD 637M/yr exports · 80,000 direct jobs · pykrige soil salinity mapping

80,000 ha
Phase 3
Agricultural area
USD 637M
per year Phase 3
Export revenue
80,000
Phase 3
Direct jobs
1,550m ASL
cool, fertile
Elevation
800mm/yr
natural endowment
Rainfall
3 days
reefer Berbera→UAE
Gulf market

Crop Portfolio — Phase 3

CropAreaYieldRevenue/yrMarket
Horticulture (tomato, pepper, onion)20,000 ha25 t/ha/yrUSD 180MGulf reefer export
Mango & banana (perennial)5,000 ha20 t/ha/yrUSD 140MGulf premium
Alfalfa (livestock feed)10,000 ha18 t/ha/yrUSD 112MLivestock + export
Grain & pulses30,000 ha3.5 t/ha/yrUSD 105MDomestic + Burco
Sesame & oil crops15,000 ha1.2 t/ha/yrUSD 100MExport oil
TOTAL80,000 ha—USD 637M—
Revenue at Phase 3 maturity · All prices at farm gate · Corrected alfalfa yield: 18 t/ha/yr (1 harvest cycle)

Gulf food security context

Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar import more than 80% of their food. Reefer shipping from Berbera Port to Dubai: 3 sailing days. Sheikh horticulture can reach Gulf supermarkets in 5 days from harvest — competitive with Kenya (7 days by air freight at 10× the cost).

AEZ Classification (pykrige kriging)

The pykrige library performs Ordinary Kriging interpolation of soil salinity (ECe) from 22 synthetic borehole points, classifying land into Agricultural Ecological Zones. A spherical variogram model is fitted to the data.

AEZECe (dS/m)Area (est.)SuitabilityBest crops
AEZ-A<225,000 haHigh valueHorticulture, fruit
AEZ-B2–455,000 haCommercialCereals, alfalfa
Restricted4–812,000 haLimitedSalt-tolerant only
Excluded>88,000 haNot suitableRehabilitation needed
ECe = Electrical conductivity of saturated extract · AEZ boundaries pending ToR C soils survey
⚠ Modelled, not surveyed. AEZ boundaries are based on kriging interpolation of synthetic data. Physical soil survey (ToR C, USD 620k) is required to validate or revise all area and revenue figures.
Library: pykrige — OrdinaryKriging with spherical variogram, 22 borehole points, 100×100 interpolation grid. Saved as charts/nb13_pykrige_salinity.png.

Phase Build-Out & Employment

Phase 1 (2026–30)
Area10,000 ha
RevenueUSD 35M/yr
Direct jobs10,000
Pilot AEZ-A horticulture, 2,000 ha mango
Phase 2 (2031–35)
Area40,000 ha
RevenueUSD 320M/yr
Direct jobs40,000
Full AEZ-A/B, alfalfa + horticulture scale-up
Phase 3 (2036–40)
Area80,000 ha
RevenueUSD 637M/yr
Direct jobs80,000
Full crop portfolio, reefer terminal at Berbera Port

Sheikh Highlands — Regional Agricultural Context

The 80,000 ha agricultural zone sits at 1,550m ASL in the Sheikh highlands, northwest of the Berbera urban area. The Greater Berbera boundary encloses the full coastal-to-highland corridor.

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