Notebook
15
FinanceModelled
Integrated Financial Model
35-year horizon 2026–2060 · 8% AfDB discount rate · 3 scenarios · NPV/IRR · DFI checklist
USD 4.65B
35-year horizon
Total programme
USD 1.64B
Phase 1–3
Govt/DFI share
>12%
AfDB threshold 8%
Economic EIRR
Positive
base case at 8%
Project NPV
~2038
base scenario
Payback year
USD 1.5B
per year at maturity
Phase 3 revenue
Three Scenarios — 35-Year Horizon
Optimistic scenario
Revenue +20% vs base · No construction delays · Phase 2 BEZ fully subscribed
Revenue Year 10USD 420M/yr
Revenue Year 35USD 1,800M/yr
Payback year2036
EIRR>18%
Base case scenario
Revenues as modelled · Phase 2 slight delay · BEZ 70% uptake
Revenue Year 10USD 320M/yr
Revenue Year 35USD 1,500M/yr
Payback year2038
EIRR>12%
Pessimistic scenario
Revenue –20% · CAPEX +20% · 2-year delay · Partial BEZ uptake
Revenue Year 10USD 200M/yr
Revenue Year 35USD 1,100M/yr
Payback year2042
EIRR>8%
Even the pessimistic scenario exceeds AfDB's 8% EIRR threshold, confirming the programme is viable across the full risk range at pre-feasibility level.
Interactive analysis
Cumulative Revenue — 3 Scenarios (USD M)
2026–2060 · Conservative / Base / Optimistic
CAPEX by Sector (USD M)
Phase 1–3 public/DFI capital · Private PPP not included
Annual Revenue Streams at Maturity (USD M/yr)
Base scenario · Phase 3 steady state ~2050
Revenue Streams (USD M/yr)
| Revenue stream | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agriculture exports | USD 35M | USD 320M | USD 637M |
| BEZ/SEZ fees + fiscal | USD 15M | USD 45M | USD 120M |
| Port throughput (govt) | USD 22M | USD 35M | USD 55M |
| Water tariff | USD 10M | USD 40M | USD 100M |
| Power export | — | USD 20M | USD 80M |
| Livestock & other agri | — | USD 58M | USD 80M |
| Tourism & real estate | USD 10M | USD 35M | USD 80M |
| TOTAL | USD 92M/yr | USD 553M/yr | USD 1,152M/yr |
Revenues at phase maturity · Agriculture is dominant stream
Financing Mix (USD 1.64B govt/DFI)
40%
AfDB ADF — USD 656M
0% interest · 40-year term · 10-year grace
30%
World Bank IDA — USD 492M
0.75% service charge · 25-year term · 5-year grace
15%
IsDB — USD 246M
2.0% mark-up · 20-year term · Istisna'a structure
10%
Somaliland Govt — USD 164M
Land contribution + in-kind · deferred schedule
5%
PPP / Blended — USD 82M
Co-investment vehicles + blended finance guarantee
CAPEX by Sector (full programme)
| Sector | Phase 1 | Phase 2 | Phase 3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water (SWRO + pipeline + dam) | USD 390M | USD 390M | USD 304M | USD 1,084M |
| Energy (solar + CSP + grid) | USD 155M | USD 120M | USD 760M | USD 1,035M |
| Port & BEZ | USD 225M | USD 460M | USD 530M | USD 1,215M |
| Agriculture (irrigation + processing) | USD 180M | USD 310M | USD 450M | USD 940M |
| Urban infrastructure + beautification | USD 100M | USD 150M | USD 125M | USD 375M |
| TOTAL CAPEX | USD 1,050M | USD 1,430M | USD 2,169M | USD 4,649M |
Phase 1 govt/DFI: USD 1.05B · Port Phase 2 is DP World private capital (USD 400M of Phase 2 total)
DFI Readiness Checklist
✓
Pre-feasibility study (15 notebooks)
Complete
✓
Economic EIRR > 8%
Confirmed (>12%)
✓
AfDB ADF eligibility
Confirmed
✓
Financial model (NPV/IRR/scenarios)
NB15 complete
○
Concept Note submission
Q2 2027
○
Project Preparation Unit
Cabinet decree needed
○
Hydrological survey
ToR A not issued
○
ESIA (18-month process)
Scoping not started
○
Geotechnical investigation
ToR D not issued
○
Full feasibility report
2028 target
○
Board presentation
Q4 2028 target
○
Loan effectiveness
Q1 2029 target
90-Day Critical Actions
A01
Issue hydrological ToR
Week 1–2 · MWR · USD 850k
A02
Issue UAV survey ToR
Week 1–3 · Municipal · USD 380k
A03
Commission ESIA scoping
Month 1–3 · EPA + MoF · USD 2.5M
A04
Issue geotechnical ToR
Month 1–2 · MWR · USD 1.2M
A05
Submit AfDB Concept Note
Month 2–3 · MoF · No cost
A06
Cabinet: establish PPU
Month 2–3 · Cabinet decree
Library: numpy_financial · scipy · matplotlib
NB15 uses numpy_financial for NPV and IRR calculations across all three scenarios.scipy for tornado chart sensitivity analysis (±20% on 6 key variables). 35-year cashflow from 2026 to 2060, 8% AfDB discount rate. All calculations reproducible from build_nb15.py.