Growth Scenarios
Three population scenarios · Infrastructure demand projections · ESDA spatial autocorrelation of growth pressure zones
Three Scenarios
Low growth
Stagnant economic base, limited infrastructure investment
Base growth
Programme Phase 1 investment completed, port expansion, moderate BEZ uptake
High growth
Full Phase 1+2 on schedule, BEZ attracts diaspora investment, port throughput doubles
Infrastructure Demand — Base Scenario
| Service | 2026 (now) | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water (m³/day) | 40,000 | 80,000 | 140,000 | 200,000 | 270,000 |
| Power (MW) | 15 | 80 | 200 | 400 | 600 |
| Sewerage (PE) | None | 50,000 | 150,000 | 280,000 | 400,000 |
| Solid waste (t/day) | 180 | 280 | 380 | 500 | 640 |
| Primary schools | 18 | 28 | 42 | 60 | 78 |
| Health clinics | 6 | 10 | 16 | 24 | 32 |
ESDA Spatial Autocorrelation Analysis
Using PySAL esda library, Moran's I and LISA (Local Indicators of Spatial Association) identify where growth pressure is spatially concentrated across Berbera's planning zones. This identifies priority infrastructure investment locations.
Global Moran's I Result
Growth pressure is significantly clustered — not randomly distributed. High-pressure zones are spatially adjacent, confirming concentrated demand in the port/Old Town quadrant.
LISA Hotspot Zones (p<0.05)
Library: esda + libpysal
PySAL's esda library computes Moran's I and LISA statistics on the 25-zone synthetic planning grid. Queen contiguity spatial weights matrix, row-standardised. Results visualised as LISA cluster maps and Moran scatter plots. This analysis will be re-run on actual survey data once ToR B (UAV) is complete.