Solar Energy System
963 MW Phase 3 · pvlib-validated GHI · CSP + wind · LCOE USD 0.025/kWh · 1.45 Mt CO₂/yr avoided
pvlib Solar Validation
The pvlib library validates the design GHI figure of 6.4 kWh/m²/day using the Ineichen clear-sky irradiance model for Berbera's exact coordinates (10.432°N, 45.016°E), at the optimal 10.4° tilt angle.
This is a conservative floor: actual irradiance including diffuse and reflected components typically exceeds the clear-sky model value by 5–8%. The 6.4 figure is used throughout all financial modelling.
| Month | GHI (kWh/m²/day) | Peak sun hours | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan | 6.8 | 6.8 | Dry season — maximum |
| Feb | 7.1 | 7.1 | Peak month |
| Mar | 7.0 | 7.0 | Pre-monsoon |
| Jun (kharif) | 5.2 | 5.2 | Monsoon cloud reduction |
| Jul (kharif) | 4.8 | 4.8 | Lowest month |
| Aug | 5.1 | 5.1 | Recovery |
| Annual average | 6.4 | 6.4 | Design basis (conservative) |
Energy Build-Out by Phase
| Phase | Solar PV | CSP | Wind | BESS | Output | CAPEX |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ph1 2026–30 | 345 MW | — | Study | 2hr | 620 GWh/yr | USD 155M |
| Ph2 2031–35 | 611 MW | — | TBD | 4hr | 1,100 GWh/yr | USD 275M |
| Ph3 2036–40 | 744 MW | 219 MW | ≤40 MW | 6hr | 2,100 GWh/yr | USD 1,035M |
SWRO Energy Check (Phase 1)
Windpowerlib — Escarpment Wind Assessment
windpowerlib models the Sheikh escarpment wind site: 6.5 m/s mean wind speed, air density 1.06 kg/m³, Weibull k=2.1. 20 turbines × 2 MW = 40 MW potential.
Libraries: pvlib + windpowerlib
Industry-standard solar modelling library. Uses Ineichen clear-sky model with Linke turbidity factor (Africa/Nairobi timezone). Validates design GHI at 6.4 kWh/m²/day. Chart saved as charts/nb11_pvlib_ghi.png.
Weibull wind distribution (k=2.1, c=7.3 m/s), power curve interpolation for IEC Class II turbine. LCOE calculation at USD 0.055/kWh — complementary to solar, reduces BESS requirement. Chart: charts/nb11_windpowerlib.png.
Monthly GHI — Berbera (kWh/m²/day)
Source: pvlib · ERA5 · PVGIS modelled baseline · annual avg 6.9 kWh/m²/day
Jun–Aug Jilaal season shows ~15% reduction; still excellent global radiation resource year-round.
Installed Capacity Build-Out (MW)
Solar + wind vs demand · pvlib/windpowerlib sizing · 963 MW total
Solar Infrastructure — Berbera Urban Area
Infrastructure footprint across the 8,927 ha planning area. Solar generation sites are concentrated in the Z6 BEZ industrial buffer and on suitable flat terrain east of the town centre.